3 scenarios for the future, Which is correct?

October 28th, 2011

Although it has been very difficult to prevent the economic future, it is rare that the views have been shared today. There are proponents of growth and of the severe crisis – but among them there is also a strong opposition against inflation deflation … Let us summarizes the three possible scenarios following the subprime crisis:

1. A pause in growth and a return to the status quo from 2009, ie growth with moderate inflation. The shares would behave again on the rise from 2009 in this case. Gold (supported by demand – jewelry-emerging …) and long-term bonds should remain fairly stable.

2. A bout of inflation without growth – stagflation – the subprime crisis would force central banks to turn over the printing announced (if not already …) for catastrophic long-term obligations, not so good for equities , gold is by far the best investment and as the ultimate safe haven, it might even maintain an ultimate bubble.

3. A deflationary crisis: catastrophic for the actions, good behavior of long-term obligations (and who would win the cash value), not good for the debt, and gold is being debated, but should at the very least maintain its purchasing power and significantly outperform the best.

My conclusion in these troubled times of visibility is now having a dedicated part of its portfolio to 10% to 15% gold is perhaps not silly at all. For it is the asset that has the best chance to get out honorably. This is to complete the article I wrote about this precious yellow metal, seen by some as an investment in a “barbarous relic”, but which is nonetheless the only currency that has survived through the centuries. Because unlike fiat currencies, gold is available in limited quantities on the surface of the earth.

Of course by adopting a comprehensive strategy for its portfolio investments.

Placement of the new savings

September 27th, 2011

We often talk about the investment of its assets, but what of its new savings, the money that iE still manages to put aside every month in this crisis?

Currently, the process of deflation is to me most likely, and the position is mainly to hold cash. All signals in this direction: deflation of all assets (commodities, equities, real estate), and long-term rates remain very low. It Loic Abadie that best illustrates this vision. The most likely occurrence is that we were in a scenario with the Japanese (however, I made ​​an analogy of form and no time for now). In this context, the ideal distribution of basic savings is 80% cash, 5% physical gold (as insurance), 5% oil / oil shares (partial protection against a rise in inflation), 10 % of shares classic (useful for a surprise turnaround in case we did finally find that in a recession “classic”)

However, I avoid being too single-minded (as are those who have been too who just lost half of their heritage …).

For example, I remain mindful of the fact that by:

- Some are more similar to the current crisis with that of 1870 than of 1929, unfortunately, I can not collect data on inflationary or deflationary environment at this time very distant

- Some of which however (not yet the case for everyone) are aware that the original problem comes from excessive debt have visions over inflation, cf. such Study

Therefore, I does not eliminate the possibility that states are able to create an inflation “soft” 10% / year (because it is their intention, even if it is never something that will be admitted to the little people because it is too ignorant of economics to understand that inflation would solve some current problems by blotting the debt). Attention, I did not say that I considered most likely because the states have to face many obstacles to achieve their intent, only that I would not dismiss it completely.

That’s why I added as insurance against the possibility of placing 20% ​​of my new savings [since September] oil (trying to buy below 30 € / bl), and the remaining 80% in cash equivalents (booklets …). Indeed, beyond the 5% physical gold insurance against a new system, oil is not an assurance that expensive now (40 $ / 1.44 = 28 €), since a history of twenty ‘year in constant euros gives a mini around € 20 for a barrel. So it’s a mix insurance / long term investment, even though I am aware that the oil retains a potential for short-term drop (it’s why I do not put that 20% of my new savings)

How to estimate the rental income from its investment property?

August 13th, 2011

When is embarking on a project to let investment, it is important to know how to assess the true profitability of a property that might covet. And so estimate how this investment will pay for itself.

The gross yield

This is the simplest to calculate, it is also the first step. This is usually the one announced by real estate agents eager to prove to you that the apartment that makes you visit is “ideal for an investor” … But beware, we are counting!
Simply divide the amount of rent received a full year, the total cost of the acquisition. (Including legal fees, agency, work, etc … and there he may already be a lot of difference from what we take into account!)
For example, if an apartment € 80,000 back to you, ready to rent and your rent will be € 500, the gross return will be (500 x 12) / 80,000 = 7.5%

The net return

But this figure is much higher than what you actually win. We must now take into account the cost of rental management.
It should be subtracted from such theoretical annual revenues (500 x 12 = € 6,000 in the example), condo fees not recoverable from the tenant, property tax, non-occupant homeowners’ insurance and possibly unpaid rent, the cost of change of tenant (managed directly by ad or a real estate agency), the holiday rental …
The amount of these fees is to be estimated individually for each well visited, according to the information you can get, but also according to your best decision.
With an assumption of one month vacation rental at € 500, you can quickly reach € 1000 costs in my example.
The net return would then be (6000 – 1000) / 80,000 = 6.25%

The net yield net

But there is still a critical point not to neglect your future property tax on your income.
The estimate of the tax depends on each particular its TMI, marginal tax bracket. More tax will depend on how you declare it in micro-land with an abatement of 30% on gross revenues, or the actual speed, by deducting all expenses (including loan interest), if you believe that your expenses exceed 30% (often true in the early years of renting, especially if you have made ​​renovations, also deductible)
For rent furnished regime micro-BIC offers a discount of 50% cheaper.

Taking the specific case of a declaration for a micro-land ownership with TMI to 30%, for example used:
The income will be taxable property for 11 months rent (assuming one month vacation rental) of 5500 € – € 5,500 x 30% = € 3,850
The tax will be 30% x € 3,850 = € 1,155

Net income and net (after tax) will be (6000 (imputed income) – 1000 (various expenses including rental vacancy expected) – € 1,155) / 80,000) = 4.8%

Cash flow

Clearly, this means that you will actually earn each year with the rental property, 4.8% of € 80,000 or € 3840 (€ 6000, not theoretical …).
This amounts to € 320 monthly gain.
You do remains to compare the monthly payments of mortgage you plan to contract for the investment.
Your purchase will be self-financing if the monthly payments are less than or equal to € 320, loan insurance included!
What if this does will be true only if your personal contribution is approximately € 30,000 € 80,000 on the total.
If you borrow 100% of the total cost of the acquisition, you will need each month to add a little pocket to complete the financing.

The calculation of profitability is essential to judge how much your investment will be funded by your successive tenants. A net return after tax as high as possible you closer to self-financing.

How individual manage the asset

July 28th, 2011

Each of us, societies, organizations, institutions are all living in the social environment, they all have a variety of assets, where I talk about how to manage personal assets, destined bloggers want to give some help and inspiration to bring .
  Personal assets and the same organization with tangible and intangible assets divided, tangible assets usually have their own ownership of real estate, cars, jewelry, cash, deposits and the like, and intangible assets is the individual’s knowledge, skills, knowledge, experience, experience, contacts and contacts of the assets, therefore, to distinguish between the assets of the respective range, then we can analyze the feasibility of asset management.
  We carry out the management of tangible assets, no more than is allowed to rise, financing further investment in higher financing rates, while intangible assets can be used to finance and sell (such as work and the like), so, in particular, working individuals to receive education in asset management was really very important, but to learn the essence of asset management, otherwise you will be worth the loss of countless trouble, of course, you can find the middle of the body to help you trust assets RBI management.
  I personally like the high-risk stock and futures investing, investment food chain, the field of automation and embedded online investment and other sectors of the PRE-IPO investment, however, is a personal investment or investment in stocks and futures, fund large point , he may side with the latter of misappropriating public investment, investing in the stock despite the above I ate some bitterness, but after my recent hard study, or rather some harvest, so invest in individual stocks and futures do not experience wind and rain, how rainbow!
  I would not like those stock analysts eager to write every day, I just quietly buried the hard work, a friend email to ask me, I will answer their questions, because I do not want to write every day and is likely to retail stock analysts friends of the decision-making like a distraction, this is my current principle!

Do Not Let Your Emotions Control Your Investment Management

July 2nd, 2010

Investment management is best performed when you are calm and patient. When you have a plan you can be decisive in your decisions. For the best long term investment management results you have to have a hands on approach be goal oriented and follow a set decision making process. Higher education or intelligence is not required to have successful investment management strategies.

Investment management following the performance of Wall Street is problematic and sometime inappropriate if you have goals for your investments. Following Wall Street trends leads to disappointment due to the volatile nature related to the many variables of the markets.

The best investment management strategies focus on growing your base income, creating profit by trading and growing your overall working capital.

The interest and dividend created from your portfolio make up your base income. For long term comfort you want to have your income increase regularly. Profit may be realized when you sell securities for more than they were purchased for. When you trade you have the potential for profit. Managing your portfolio is key to increasing its yield and your overall cash flow.

Growing working capital is easy. It is the rate that falls between your realized gains on the equities in your portfolio and the average returns from your income securities in your portfolio. Equity allocations will make this capital even higher due to frequent trading and higher rates of return. Your risk to lose is higher with income securities. Equity allocations are more secure than income allocations. As you near retirement you want to reduce your asset allocations as a percentage of your equity.

This all may pose the question of is there really an income portfolio needing to be managed? Asset allocation can be a way to tweak the investment portfolio through the various life changes. The yacht or trip around the world you dreamed about in your twenties may no longer be a priority to you. When your values and goals change you may need to make necessary adjustments to your investment management strategies. When you use a working capital or cost basis approach you can keep a handle on your investments in a non threatening manner. When saving for your future your approach should be on the conservative order focused on income growth. When you set this plan in motion you can focus on the more important matters in your life.

What is Financial Planning?

June 24th, 2010

When you develop strategies of managing your finances in order to pay your bills and meet your life goals you using the process of financial planning. Financial planning can seem to be complicated but it is necessary if you want to achieve your financial goals. In a financial plan you set objectives, create a budget and review and revise your plan from time to time.

The objectives of a financial plan are categorized into five groups. The first group consists of the items required for survival. Shelter, food, clothing are all basic needs that must be met. Other financial objectives are for emergency funds and savings. Then you have discretionary objectives. Insurance to protect your assets and health. Then there is estate planning, minimizing tax liabilities and providing for your heirs.

After you set your financial plan objectives you have to lie out a plan to carry them out. First you need to analyze your current situation. What are the things currently keeping you from attaining your goals? Then you can develop solutions to fix these obstacles. As you carry out you financial plan to meet your objectives you need to monitor your progress. Over time you may need to adjust your objectives and plans as your situation and need change. Your life is not static and your financial plan should not be static either.

The budget is another necessary step in the financial planning process. You develop the budget by looking at your objectives and finding the ways to implement your plan. In the budget you have to identify your spending habits, establish goals, track spending and evaluate if you are keeping to your budget. Small expenses can add up over time. If you can reduce as many large expenses as you can. Reducing your tax liability is another way that you can save money. Lastly do not forget about inflation and how it will affect your savings.

Remember to pull out your financial plan from time to time and make necessary revisions. This is an important step not to forget to do. If you do not monitor your progress you will not know that you are staying on course. Sometimes situations and changes in your life will require you to make adjustments to your financial plan. When you keep an up to date financial plan you will be able to face any financial challenge you are met with.